WIZARD's National Pick 3 & Pick 6 Best Bets
THE WIZARD'S SELECTED PICK THREE, PICK SIX, & TRIFECTA PLAYS
June 18, 1999
Some of the Pick Threes and Trifectas hit on this sheet in June:
BEL 6/9: $51 CD 6/9: $551 HOL 6/4: $87 CRC 6/11:$135
BEL 6/10:$50 CD 6/9: $56 HOL 6/5: $83 CRC 6/12:$53
BEL 6/11:$89 CD 6/9: $122 HOL 6/5: $161 MON 6/17:$103
BEL 6/12:$109 CD 6/10:$323 HOL 6/6: $86
BEL 6/12:$149 CD 6/16:$78 HOL 6/6: $119
BEL 6/16:$101 CD 6/16:$60 HOL 6/16:$198
BEL 6/17:$63 CD 6/16:$676
BEL 6/17:$118
INTRODUCTION:
With the exception of playing the Pick Six when there is a reasonably
large carryover, the Pick Three is the best wager at the track.
Despite being comparable to a three-race parlay win bet, there is
only one takeout from Pick Three wagers, as opposed to the three that
would occur on a true parlay. The Pick Three is essentially a baby
Pick Six, and should be viewed in that way. But unlike the Pick Six,
the Pick Three is not played by large syndicates who can play
hundreds or even thousands of combinations, and are the only ones
left standing to pick up all of the cash when a couple of longshots
knock all of the small bettors out. The key similarity between the
Pick Three and Pick Six is that they often provide very generous
payoffs that exceed what the win parlay payoffs would have been, and
that is where we focus our strategy. The Pick Three can provide
large payoffs for the small bettor who is patient in his or her play
and looks for value every time he or she makes this bet.
It is imperative to point out that the very nature of the Pick
Three differentiates it from regular win/place/show betting, and even
exacta/daily double wagering, in that it is NOT a bet that you will
hit with high frequency. As those of you who have already purchased
this sheet in its first six months of existence know, often is the
time that we hit two of the three legs, but miss on a close call in
the other one. If you choose to partake in the Pick Three wager, you
must be patient, and not judge your play (or this sheet, for that
matter) on one day's, or even one week's, performance. Long-term
profit on Pick Three or Pick Six plays is derived from pursuing
sequences that will be overlaid (i.e. not over-using favorites), and
by that very definition the FREQUENCY of hitting a favorable Pick
Three will be fairly low, although the payoffs, when hit, will be
fairly high.
Avoiding favorites as much as possible is the key to catching Pick
Three overlays. If you can't see past one, two, or all three of the
favorites in a Pick Three series, then don't make the bet. Playing the
favorites, or only low-priced horses, from all three races on the same
ticket always results in underlaid payoffs when they win. Our strategy
will generally be to put some mid-priced and longshot horses on each
ticket in logical combinations with high-probability favorites. They
WILL NOT produce a winning Pick Three ticket every day, but when they
do, there will be value in the payoff, and our long-term return on
investment will benefit from our patience in playing the Pick Three
in this manner. Again, if you are the type of player who needs to cash
a ticket with relatively high frequency, then the suggestion is to stick
with basic win/place/show or exacta betting, which is emphasized in my
daily track-specific sheets.
Our approach here will be to provide relatively inexpensive Pick
Three plays keyed upon horses we feel strongly about from our analysis
of major tracks across the country. You can double, triple, or even cut
in half the amounts suggested on our plays based on your personal budget
and level of play. When we suggest Pick Six plays, we will generally
provide two or three separate plays for each Pick Six that we analyze,
one basic $48 play, one for the middle-budget player, and one for the
player willing to invest a fair amount in this potentially windfall-
producing bet. The Pick Six offers the best value on days when there is
a carryover, and on those days, our strategy and suggested plays for
this bet will be more detailed and usually involve larger tickets.
However, even when there is not a carryover, a moderate investment is
often desirable for many players in the event that their top selections
fare very well.
Beginning May 26, I've added a new feature to this sheet:
Selected Trifecta Plays. Two or three will be suggested daily when it
appears a good wagering opportunity arises. Trifectas can offer
generous payoffs when one or two mid-priced or longshot horses can hit
the board, and this wager allows us to concentrate on a key horse or two
in a single race rather than having to combine those key horses with
projected winners in other races that may not provide the same level of
confidence. Trifectas many times offer a good compliment to Pick Threes.
Finally, those of you that purchase our daily Wizard selection
sheets and race-by-race analysis from specific tracks will notice that
we don't give details on each individual horse here as we do on those
sheets. That is because this is intended to be a wagering guide, not
a handicapping guide. There is a big difference between the two. It
takes one type of skill to handicap a race and deduce the most likely
contenders and winners, but it is a separate type of analysis and skill
that is needed to properly combine those selections in the optimal ways
to allow for long-term profit potential. Both are important in the
sport of horse racing, and we believe that we're the first in the
business to offer daily guidance and instruction in the area of
wagering strategies.
BELMONT PARK PICK 3 RACES 2-4
NOTE: THIS PLAY IS IF RACE 3 IS ON TURF ONLY.
RACE 2: (1)Explosive Reward (2)Smithson Valley (4)Overtrick
(5)Gone Super (7)Button Raise
RACE 3: (1)Sun Princessa (2)What Is Next (3)Confirming (5)El Sueno
(7)Weekend In Indy (8)La Belle Chantal
RACE 4: (3)AMERICA'S BELLE
Ticket One: 1-2-4-5-7 / 1-2-3-5-7-8 / 3 = 5x6x1x$1 = $30
Ticket Two: None
AMERICA'S BELLE could offer value in this Pick Three at her 6-1 morning
line odds. She is exceptionally well-bred for a NY bred, and has been
working very well for the strong team of Schosberg and Chavez. Although
she broke her maiden stretching her speed to a mile, she is much more
suited to sprinting, which she does today. Lasix added for her return.
BELMONT PARK PICK 3 RACES 6-8
RACE 6: (3)HAZING TONY
RACE 7: (1)Hansel's Girl (3)Ghost Colony (6)Moonlighting
(7)Miss Thermal Tech (8)One Run Baby
RACE 8: (2)Lucayan Prince (4)BALTIMORE GRAY (6)Master O Foxhounds
Ticket One: 3 / 1-3-6-7-8 / 2-6 = 1x5x2x$2 = $20
Ticket Two: 3 / 1-3-6-7-8 / 4 = 1x5x1x$3 = $15
HAZING TONY adds blinkers today, which may help to cure the greenness he
showed last time when engaged in a duel. He could get to the lead today
and keep on going, as he did in his impressive debut win.
BELMONT PARK TRIFECTA PLAY OF THE DAY RACE 9
TOP SPOT: (9)MINNIE'S BRAT
2ND SPOT: (1)Drivingmissbertie/Asap (2)Rhinestone Dewey(3)Private Treaty
(4)Flag On The Gate (11)Watchmenow
3RD SPOT: (1)Drivingmissbertie/Asap (2)Rhinestone Dewey(3)Private Treaty
(4)Flag On The Gate (6)Rocky Turn (10)Minkable (11)Watchmenow
$1 TRIFECTA TICKET: 9 / 1-2-3-4-11 / 1-2-3-4-6-10-11 = $25
MINNIE'S BRAT returns for Peter Walder, who wins one third of his starts
off the layoff, and has won with an outstanding 5 of 7 horses when John
Velazquez rides, a key indicator of intent today. Walder won with a
very similar layoff horse yesterday at Monmouth.
BELMONT PARK PICK 6 RACES 3-8
RACE 3: (1)Sun Princessa (3)Confirming (5)El Sueno
RACE 4: (3)AMERICA'S BELLE
RACE 5: (1)Bebop Blues (6)Smooth Blues
RACE 6: (3)HAZING TONY
RACE 7: (1)Hansel's Girl (3)Ghost Colony
RACE 8: (4)BALTIMORE GRAY
1-3-5 / 3 / 1-6 / 3 / 1-3 / 4 = $48
With no carryover and some wide open races, the suggestion today is to
PASS ON THIS PICK SIX. I believe that Hollywood offers a much more
attractive card today for Pick Six players.
CALDER PICK 3 RACES 2-4
RACE 2: (1)Play Me A Memory (2)Russian Act (3)Watch Me
(7)Susan Out Tilldawn (9)Starship Gussie
RACE 3: (1)Governor Joe (3)American Bullet (4)Ells End
RACE 4: (3)RUN FOR CONGRESS
Ticket One: 1-2-3-7-9 / 1-3-4 / 3 = 5x3x1x$2 = $30
Ticket Two: None
RUN FOR CONGRESS makes her second start for Garcia, who excels with new
claims, winning a high percentage either first or second time out.
Hot riding Eibar Coa taking the mount is a plus.
CALDER PICK 3 RACES 8-10
RACE 8: (2)Diablo's Spirit (3)Susan's Shorts (5)Sligo Jim
(7)Stand Up Delivery
RACE 9: (2)Curtie And Doug (7)Mr. Terris
RACE 10: (7)GREAT PYRITE
Ticket One: 2-3-5-7 / 2-7 / 7 = 4x2x1x$2 = $16
Ticket Two: None
GREAT PYRITE put in a strong effort in his debut showing good early
speed before fading grudgingly. He gets blinkers added for a stable
that does much better with horses second time out.
CHURCHILL DOWNS PICK 3 RACES 5-7
RACE 5: (4)Kissed By Angels (6)Septieme Etoile (8)Initial Offering
(9)CERTAIN PHONE
RACE 6: (4)Zeriab (7)Watch My Gold (9)Man Of Baghdad
RACE 7: (1)TRIPLE GREAT (3)Planet Earth (4)Quiet Minstrel
(5)Andersonville (6)Stormy Diplomat
Ticket One: 9 / 4-7-9 / 1-3-4-5-6 = 1x3x5x$1 = $15
Ticket Two: 4-6-8-9 / 4-7-9 / 1 = 4x3x1x$1 = $12
CERTAIN PHONE faced a key race field while well backed in her debut and
turned in a solid effort. She got lasix and blinkers for her return in
May and since that time has improved dramatically. TRIPLE GREAT gets
the rail and has the speed to wire his field. Pat Day up adds support.
CHURCHILL DOWNS PICK 3 RACES 8-10
RACE 8: (1)Rose Of Cimarron(2)Taegu(4)Singalonghome(7)MYSUNSHINECAROLINE
RACE 9: (2)HIDDEN CITY
RACE 10: (1)I'veseenthelight (2)Guten Morgen (4)Yancey (5)Super Donjuan
(8)Drennon Springs (9)Mawhub
Ticket One: 1-2-4 / 2 / 1-2-4-5-8-9 = 3x1x6x$1 = $18
Ticket Two: 7 / 2 / 1-2-4-5-8-9 = 1x1x6x$2 = $12
HIDDEN CITY returned from a ten month layoff and attended a blistering
pace before giving way late. He could get away with a wire-to-wire win
today in his second start back as he faces less pace pressure.
CHURCHILL DOWNS TRIFECTA PLAY OF THE DAY RACE 8
TOP SPOT: (7)MYSUNSHINECAROLINE
2ND SPOT: (1)Rose Of Cimarron (2)Taegu (4)Singalonghome
3RD SPOT: ALL (10 entry field)
$1 TRIFECTA TICKET 1: 7 / 1-2-4 / 1-2-4 = $6
$1 TRIFECTA TICKET 2: 7 / 1-2-4 / ALL = $24
$1 TRIFECTA TICKET 3: 1-2-4 / 7 / 1-2-4 = $6
Total Wager = $36
MYSUNSHINECAROLINE has hit the board in all four races since moving to
two turns, and gets a very positive jockey change today to Day. She
should sit a good trip stalking the speed.
HOLLYWOOD PARK PICK 3 RACES 1-3
RACE 1: (2)PENNYSAVER (6)Bean Sum Fun
RACE 2: (2)QUEENIE BELLE
RACE 3: (1)Valley Don (2)My Apollo (4)Shipwrecked (5)Azure Ciel
(6)Wandering
Ticket One: 2 / 2 / 1-2-4-5-6 = 1x1x5x$3 = $15
Ticket Two: 6 / 2 / 1-2-4-5-6 = 1x1x5x$1 = $5
QUEENIE BELLE exits an extremely fast debut race from which the winner
came back to win a stakes race. She closed very impressively for second
in that race after a poor start. PENNYSAVER appears primed for a big
effort in her third start for Cerin following two runner-up finishes.
HOLLYWOOD PARK PICK 3 RACES 4-6
RACE 4: (3)Shez Myragincajun (4)Fox Run (5)NIBLEY (6)Five Nines
(7)Ivycoveredwalls (8)Lunar Surprise
RACE 5: (1)Seigneurial/Bolero Boy
RACE 6: (6)MAITRISE
Ticket One: 3-4-6-7-8 / 1 / 6 = 5x1x1x$2 = $10
Ticket Two: 5 / 1 / 6 = 1x1x1x$6 = $6
The Vienna entry in Race 5 is detailed below. MAITRISE ran an
outstanding race while setting a fast pace last time and running a clear
second to a horse who next ran in a G2 race. She could be the
controlling speed in her field, and has been improving rapidly as a four
year old while being carefully brought along by Neil Drysdale. NIBLEY
tries two turns for a trainer very adept at the stretch-out move.
HOLLYWOOD PARK PICK 3 RACES 6-8
RACE 6: (2)Racey Player (3)Mis Upstart (4)Puddy Cat (6)MAITRISE
(9)Quistamira
RACE 7: (1)Hollyhoney (2)Dancethenightaway (4)ROYAL SHYNESS
RACE 8: (4)PLAY IT SAFE
Ticket One: 2-3-4-9 / 1-2 / 4 = 4x2x1x$1 = $8
Ticket Two: 2-3-4-6-9 / 4 / 4 = 5x1x1x$3 = $15
Ticket Three: 6 / 1-2-4 / 4 = 1x3x1x$3 = $9
Total Wager = $32
PLAY IT SAFE was compromised by a poor start last time but still closed
boldly to just miss. He adds blinkers for his third start back today,
and with a clean break should be able to set or press the pace all the
way in a field lacking much other speed.
HOLLYWOOD TRIFECTA PLAY OF THE DAY RACE 5
TOP SPOT: (1)Seigneurial/Bolero Boy
2ND SPOT: (2)Del Mar Dancer (5)Destiny's Venture (6)Paramour
3RD SPOT: ALL (8 entry field)
$1 TRIFECTA TICKET 1: 1 / 2-5-6 / 2-5-6 = $6
$1 TRIFECTA TICKET 2: 1 / 2-5-6 / ALL = $18
The Vienna entry in race one offers two horses who are each making their
second starts off of long layoffs. Each had a good return race and has
proven dangerous over this course and at this distance in the past.
Race favorite Destiny's Venture had a very hard race last time out and
may not bounce back to form quite so quickly, offering some value on
this pair.
HOLLYWOOD PARK PICK 6 RACES 3-8
RACE 3: (4)Shipwrecked (5)Azure Ciel (6)Wandering
RACE 4: (4)Fox Run (5)Nibley (7)Ivycoveredwalls
RACE 5: (1)Seigneurial/Bolero Boy
RACE 6: (3)Mis Upstart (6)Maitrise (9)Quistamira
RACE 7: (4)ROYAL SHYNESS
RACE 8: (4)PLAY IT SAFE
4-5-6 / 4-5-7 / 1 / 3-6-9 / 4 / 4 = $54
Although there's no carryover, this Pick Six appears to offer a
reasonable shot for a relatively small investment, and is worth a play
if you're a Pick Six player.
* PLEASE NOTE *
This Pick 3 / Pick 6 Sheet will be available Wednesdays through
Sundays by 8 A.M. Eastern time. It will also be published on
certain Mondays or Tuesdays when California and/or New York has
special racing cards on those days. Also, due to the nature of this
report, significant scratches may render several of the plays useless
from time to time. When a major circuit (Belmont, Hollywood Park,
Churchill Downs, or Calder) is cancelled on a scheduled racing day due
to weather, OR if TWO OR MORE of the sheet's plays are completely
wiped out due to scratches, email me at the address below, and you can
receive the next day's card FREE of charge directly from me, The Wizard.
DO NOT CONTACT BRIS for a free sheet in these circumstances.
Any questions, comments, or feedback can be addressed to The Wizard at:
ddkipness@aol.com
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